Burlington County — 2026 Turnout Intelligence

Burlington County Democratic Committee

2026 Turnout Intelligence

General Election · November 3, 2026

Proj. Turnout (Base)

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Win Number

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D Persuasion Needed

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R Persuasion Needed

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High (+3 pts)

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TO%—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Base Case

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TO%—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Low (-3 pts)

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TO%—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Registration Mix (PRESS)

Enter PRESS data in the Data Entry tab

VBM Signups (VAN)

Win Analysis — Base Scenario

Enter registration and lock votes in Data Entry

Historical Turnout Trend

Race-Level Falloff Analysis

Positive % = local exceeded upballot

No historyAdd election years with + Add year or 📋 Paste results from the PRESS system.

Avg Falloff by Race Type (weighted)

Calculated from data above

Commissioner Dropoff Pattern

Registration (from PRESS or county website)

Election Year

Total registered

Reg. as of (month)

Source

Democratic

Unaffiliated

Republican

VAN Universe & Lock Votes

Active voters (VAN)

Feeds the VBM signup-rate card only — projections and the win # use Total registered above.

Win buffer

D lock votes

R lock votes

Race % of ballots cast

Commissioner / local race dropoff from top of ticket

TO% override (blank = auto)

Race Context & Environment

Office

Incumbency

National / State Environment

Shifts D performance relative to historical average

Candidate Factor

Notes

Cycle

Election: Nov 3, 2026

Latest VAN Snapshot — Applications Signed Up

Drop a VBM file into Election Data/ and reload — it'll auto-import. Or use Import VBM in the sidebar.

VBM Applications Filed (manual)

Democratic

Unaffiliated

Republican

VBM Ballots Returned

Democratic

Unaffiliated

Republican

Return Rates & D Advantage

Enter VBM data above

Ballots vs. Win Number

Enter lock votes in Data Entry tab, then VBM returns here

Return % — Historical Pace (County) vs This Muni 2026

Muni-scoped daily pace unavailable pre-2026; county curve shown as benchmark

Avg Daily Return Pace

County-wide (muni pace not separately tracked pre-2026)

Loading pace stats…

Muni Final Return Comparison (Dem-only)

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Party Signup Rates (% of Registered)

Enter muni registration (Data Entry) + VBM snapshot to compute.

VBM Snapshots History (this muni)

Snapshots accumulate as you import VBM files over time.

Burlington County Commissioner Race

2026 General Election · Standalone county-wide projection

Overview

History & Falloff

Data Entry

VBM Tracker

Commissioner Win #

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Proj. Ballots (Base)

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D Persuasion Needed

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R Persuasion Needed

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High (+3 pts)

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TO%—

Comm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Base

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TO%—

Comm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Low (-3 pts)

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TO%—

Comm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

TO% Trend

Avg Falloff by Race Type

Calculated from history

Registration Mix

Enter registration in Data Entry tab

VBM Signups (VAN) — County Rollup

Win Analysis

Enter registration & lock votes in Data Entry tab

Cycle

Election: Nov 3, 2026

Current Dem VBM Signups

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Current Una VBM Signups

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Current Rep VBM Signups

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Total VBM Signups

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Return % — Historical Pace vs 2026

Days until Election Day

Avg Daily Return Pace

Mean daily-change % across the tracked window (per party)

Loading pace stats…

VBM Final Returns — Cross-Cycle

Loading historical VBM finals…

Party Signup Rates (% of Registered)

Enter county registration in Data Entry, then import a VBM snapshot.

Early Vote EV first available in NJ for 2021 General

Dem EV Cast

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Una EV Cast

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Rep EV Cast

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Total EV Cast

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EV Pace — Historical vs 2026

Days until Election Day

EV Final Totals — Cross-Cycle

EV first available in NJ for 2021 General

Loading EV finals…

VBM Snapshots History (2026 Cycle)

Snapshots will accumulate as you import VBM files over time.

County Historical Results

⚠ Add 2022 county results for best accuracy

No history yetClick "+ Add year" to enter county-wide results by election year.

TO% Trend · Avg Falloff · Race Dropoff charts moved to Overview tab ↑

County Registration

Registration year

VAN Registration — normalizes signup-rate comparisons (matches VAN-sourced VBM / EV data)

Total registered (VAN)

Democratic

Unaffiliated

Republican

State Certified Registration — drives win # + turnout projection (monthly NJ state file): the county projects the raw countywide vote, which includes Daniel's-Law-redacted voters VAN omits. Blank = falls back to VAN.

Total registered (State)

Democratic

Unaffiliated

Republican

Projection Inputs

D lock votes

R lock votes

Commissioner % of top-ticket

% of voters who show up and also vote in the commissioner race. Check the History tab for your actual avg.

Win buffer

×1.02 adds a 2% safety margin on top of the win number.

TO% override (leave blank = auto-calculated from history)

Environment & Race Assumptions

National / State Environment

Shifts projected D performance vs. historical average

Candidate Factor

2026 Race Notes

Legislative District 7 — Assembly Planning

No Assembly race on the Nov 2026 ballot (odd-year seat — next: Nov 2027) · Burlington County munis in LD7

Overview

History & Falloff

Data Entry

VBM Tracker

Assembly Win #

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Proj. Ballots (Base)

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D Persuasion Needed

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R Persuasion Needed

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High (+3 pts)

—

TO%—

Asm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Base

—

TO%—

Asm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Low (-3 pts)

—

TO%—

Asm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

TO% Trend

Avg Falloff by Race Type

Calculated from history

Race Dropoff Pattern

Registration Mix

Enter registration in Data Entry tab

VBM Signups (VAN) — LD7 Rollup

Win Analysis

Enter active voters & lock votes in Data Entry tab

Municipalities in LD7 (Burlington County)

Loading…

Cycle

Election: Nov 3, 2026

Current Dem VBM Signups

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Current Una VBM Signups

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Current Rep VBM Signups

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Total VBM Signups

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Return % — Historical Pace (County) vs LD7 2026

LD-scoped daily pace unavailable pre-2026; county curve shown as benchmark

Avg Daily Return Pace

County-wide (LD pace not separately tracked pre-2026)

Loading pace stats…

LD7 Final Return Comparison

Loading…

Party Signup Rates (% of Registered)

Enter LD7 registration, then import VBM.

VBM Snapshots (LD7 Rollup)

Snapshots accumulate across import dates.

LD7 Historical Results

No history yetClick "+ Add year" to enter LD7 results by election year.

TO% Trend · Avg Falloff · Race Dropoff charts moved to Overview tab ↑

Registration (LD7 Burlington County portion)

Registration year

Total registered (VAN)

Democratic

Unaffiliated

Republican

Projection Inputs

D lock votes

R lock votes

Assembly % of top-ticket

% of voters who also cast a vote in the Assembly race.

Win buffer

TO% override (leave blank = auto)

Environment & Race Assumptions

National / State Environment

Shifts projected D performance vs. historical average

Candidate Factor

2026 Race Notes

Legislative District 8 — Assembly Planning

No Assembly race on the Nov 2026 ballot (odd-year seat — next: Nov 2027) · Burlington County munis in LD8

Overview

History & Falloff

Data Entry

VBM Tracker

Assembly Win #

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Proj. Ballots (Base)

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D Persuasion Needed

—

R Persuasion Needed

—

High (+3 pts)

—

TO%—

Asm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Base

—

TO%—

Asm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

Low (-3 pts)

—

TO%—

Asm. ballots—

Win #—

D projected—

R projected—

Projected margin—

D needs—

TO% Trend

Avg Falloff by Race Type

Calculated from history

Race Dropoff Pattern

Registration Mix

Enter registration in Data Entry tab

VBM Signups (VAN) — LD8 Rollup

Win Analysis

Enter active voters & lock votes in Data Entry tab

Municipalities in LD8 (Burlington County)

Loading…

Cycle

Election: Nov 3, 2026

Current Dem VBM Signups

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Current Una VBM Signups

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Current Rep VBM Signups

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Total VBM Signups

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Return % — Historical Pace (County) vs LD8 2026

LD-scoped daily pace unavailable pre-2026; county curve shown as benchmark

Avg Daily Return Pace

County-wide (LD pace not separately tracked pre-2026)

Loading pace stats…

LD8 Final Return Comparison

Loading…

Party Signup Rates (% of Registered)

Enter LD8 registration, then import VBM.

VBM Snapshots (LD8 Rollup)

Snapshots accumulate across import dates.

LD8 Historical Results

No history yetClick "+ Add year" to enter LD8 results by election year.

TO% Trend · Avg Falloff · Race Dropoff charts moved to Overview tab ↑

Registration (LD8 Burlington County portion)

Registration year

Total registered (VAN)

Democratic

Unaffiliated

Republican

Projection Inputs

D lock votes

R lock votes

Assembly % of top-ticket

% of voters who also cast a vote in the Assembly race.

Win buffer

TO% override (leave blank = auto)

Environment & Race Assumptions

National / State Environment

Shifts projected D performance vs. historical average

Candidate Factor

2026 Race Notes

Computing from CANDIDATES[2026] + per-muni history…

Towns

Add or remove a town's card. Numbers populate from the latest pulse.